First the disclaimer: I only remember making three good scores on The Kentucky Derby in my 63 year LIFFETIME.
My Derby plays this year will be:
UNION RAGS to win and place, assuming odds of 3/1 or up
Exacta: UNION RAGS over ALPHA, CREATIVE CAUSE, EL PADRINO
An exacta box: UNION RAGS, ALPHA, CREATIVE CAUSE, EL PADRINO
Those aren't very "sexy" tickets. There are no huge longshots aimed at lottery sized winnings. Perhaps my biggest hit of the day will come from a group of $5k claimers in mid-afternoon at Thistledown. However, for me, conservative is the best route in most Derbys and this one features one of best matched fields that I can remember.
Why UNION RAGS? His explosive move to destroy the Fountain Of Youth Stakes still pops into my head every time I begin to look at this race. Hopefully, the loss in the Florida Derby was a learning experience for Julien Leparoux and my chosen colt. Anyhow, betting against my gut seldom works out for me.
The other three colts on my tickets have running styles and characteristics in common with UNION RAGS. I expect them all to be in the second flight in the first half of the race, sitting behind what looks like a good sized group of front runners. They should all be ready as the field enters the final half mile. These four runners have shown some consistency posting multiple Bris figs in triple digits. Seeing a couple of them battle to reach the line first would make my day.
There are some very good front runners in here. BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, GEMOLIGIST and TAKE CHARGE INDY are all capable of winning the "Run For the Roses." Selecting the one most likely to survive the early fractions is beyond me. I'll have to pass on them all.
If you gamble on late closer, you also gamble on a perfect trip. I passed those boys, including DULLAHAN. I felt foolish sitting in the Keeneland stands watching that day's "wiseguy" horse take my money. I'm betting that Keeneland is his track and Blue Grass Day was his last spring day to shine.
